BSNL’s Loss is Bharti’s Gain

BSNL’s Mega GSM Tender for PAN India expansion is very likely to face further delays due to questions raised by IT and Communications Minister, A.Raja.

Capacity shortfall has led to BSNL’s share of net adds declining sharply to ~13% in the last 12 months from a peak of 21% in FY05, and has been worsening. Bharti Airtel has benefited most from an “inactive” BSNL – its share of adds improving by 6% in past three years. Vodafone-Hutch-Essar is already the second largest GSM Operator in India.

India is in midst of strong growth with sub additions projected to peak in FY08 at 7.1m and 7.5m  in FY09. Any loss of market share on account of delay of tender in these two years would be difficult to bridge once the growth tapers off beyond FY09. Hopefully they will resolve this issue soon.

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